Why the US macro outlook matters more than ever for institutional investors

Key Takeaways
• Geopolitical shocks, political decisions and the rapid advancement of AI technologies are currently driving market movements more significantly than traditional corporate fundamentals.
• The US is a primary driver of global volatility due to shifting trade policies, inflation pressures, and upcoming electoral cycles
• Massive AI-driven capital expenditure and semiconductor demand are fueling a concentrated global markets rally, requiring disciplined strategic oversight across asset classes
• BNP Paribas’ Markets 360 team provides specialized, local US expertise, a capability recognized by Euromoney and Global Capital as North America’s Best Bank for Research

Understanding today’s US macro outlook

The US macro outlook has become increasingly shaped by geopolitical fracture, policy uncertainty and AI disruption, rather than traditional economic cycles.  

As fragile ceasefires and renewed military escalation continue to drive market volatility, another structural shift is redefining the investment landscape: artificial intelligence.

How is AI reshaping the US macro outlook?

While much of the market initially viewed AI as a long-term productivity story driven by supply-side efficiencies, BNP Paribas’ Markets 360 team identified a different dynamic.

“Investors should think about AI as more than a productivity story,” explains James Egelholf, Chief US Economist at BNP Paribas. “Its initial macroeconomic effects are likely to emerge through stronger demand, with significant implications for growth, inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy.”

This call helped to shape the team’s out of consensus bullish view on the US economy and its hawkish view on the Fed, reinforcing the need for investors to look beyond traditional economic relationships.

To stay on top of market dynamics, BNP Paribas’ Global Outlook provides a comprehensive look at the forces reshaping the economic reality. Read the latest Global Outlook here

Why local US strategy and economics expertise matters

The onset of the US-Iran conflict in February 2026 served as a stark reminder of how quickly geopolitical shocks can override market fundamentals. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year – a conduit for 20% of global oil supply – sent crude prices surging past $100 per barrel in March 2026.

Institutional investors are operating in what Calvin Tse, Head of US Strategy and Economics at BNP Paribas, describes as “one of the most policy-driven macro landscapes since the 2008 financial crisis.”

In an era where decisions on tariffs, immigration, and fiscal stimulus can reshuffle market dynamics overnight, the traditional boundaries of economic analysis are being redrawn.

These converging dynamics have positioned the US as the epicenter of global volatility. For institutional clients, access to sharp, independent analysis is increasingly critical to help avoid costly misjudgments in real time.

How Markets 360 helps clients navigate the US macro outlook

Markets 360 provides actional insight into the US Economy

BNP Paribas’ US Markets 360 division provides actionable intelligence that transcends traditional reporting.

The first half of 2025 served as a litmus test; as the US administration enacted sweeping trade measures and immigration tightening, the Markets 360 team adopted early contrarian stances that diverged from consensus, providing critical guidance for clients navigating supply chain disruptions.

More recently, the team’s early call for three FOMC rate hikes enabled its clients to capitalize on the move in front-end rates and the strengthening US dollar before these trends were priced into the broader market consensus.

“Our role isn’t just to report the news – it’s to frame it,” says Tse “In a year where macro events are dictating market outcomes more than ever, our strategy and economics team translates geopolitical shocks into tangible risk models and client-centric strategies.”

The multi-asset edge: from macro narratives to actionable trades

While macro shifts provide the “why,” the true institutional edge lies in the “how.” Understanding a central bank pivot or a geopolitical shock is only the first step; the challenge is translating these high-level signals into precise, instrument-level execution.

The Markets 360 division is built to bridge this gap, turning macro-economic convictions into actionable trade ideas across asset classes – from fixed income and currencies to commodity and equity derivatives. By distilling broad economic themes into specific trade ideas, the US Markets 360 team helps clients move from observation to actionable positioning.

Markets 360 thought leader: Turning US macro outlook into investment opportunity

The US Markets 360 team has elevated its engagement beyond traditional strategy and economic content, hosting high-impact events and conferences.

Global and political leaders such as former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Jim Bullard, and General David Petraeus have joined BNP Paribas’ recent institutional Americas Conferences, providing critical insight into the US political, economic and market landscape.

A central theme at the recent  Global Markets Americas Conference 2026 was the strategic management of dislocated markets driven by AI disruption, geopolitical instability, and policy volatility.

These forums offer a platform for institutional and corporate clients to connect with peers and gain valuable market insights.

Markets 360: Building best in class US strategy and economics capability

Recognizing that the US economy is now more sensitive to policy shifts than at any point in recent years, the bank has expanded its local intellectual capital.

The strategic appointments of James Egelhof (formerly of the New York Fed) as Chief US Economist and Guneet Dhingra (formerly of Morgan Stanley) as Head of US Rates Strategy underscore a shift toward hyper-local expertise.

“Our mix of economics and strategy expertise gives us insight into real-world market dynamics that help our clients anticipate policy pivots before they hit consensus forecasts,” notes Luigi Speranza, Global Head of Markets 360 and Chief economist at BNP Paribas. “We bridge macro analysis and actionable trade ideas with a seamless and integrated global offering”.

Euromoney and Global Capital recognize Market 360 for its US excellence

This rigorous focus on navigating complexity and providing foresight has been recognized by the industry. BNP Paribas was named North America’s Best Bank for Research at the recent Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2026 – a first in this category – and more recently Americas Research and Strategy House of the Yearat the GlobalCapital Derivates Awards 2026.

This builds on the team’s global success, where Markets 360 was also awarded Research and Strategy House of the Year for Europe and Asia 2026.

Winning these awards in close succession underscores the growing impact of the BNP Paribas US Markets 360 team. Its focus remains steadfast: providing the clarity required to transform global uncertainty into disciplined investment opportunities.

FAQs

What is Markets 360?
Markets 360 is BNP Paribas’ strategy and economics platform. It provides institutional investors with analysis and insights to make informed market decisions.

What does Markets 360 offer?
Markets 360 offers:
• Detailed market analysis
• Strategic insights for high-stakes decisions
• Economic perspectives with real-word business impact

Where does Markets 360 operate?
Markets 360 operates in all major regions including:
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• Americas
• With local experts in all key regions

Why choose Markets 360’s insights?
Markets 360 provides clients with:
• Reliable, data-driven analysis
• Fast, up-to-date insights
• Clear, actionable recommendations

How does Markets 360 help you?
Markets 360 helps clients:
• Monitor market shifts in real time
• Deliver strategic and economic views
• Enable faster, more informed decisions